Publications & Resources
Our faculty, students and researchers work together everyday to contribute to a better world by grappling with urgent problems we are facing in India. We conduct rigorous work to produce high quality learning resources and publications to contribute to public discourse and social change. Here, we feature a sample from our work for everyone to access. You can explore featured resources, policies, and the latest publications from the University.
To explore all the work of our University, please visit our publications repository.
List of Publications & Resources
India’s Economy in the last decade: a view through the Flow of Funds
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
Using the RBI’s Flow of Funds data, this paper examines changes in India’s sectoral balance sheets between FY2011-12 and FY2023-24. It confirms two longstanding features: households remain the dominant creditor and government the dominant borrower. It identifies a break in the historical stability of household asset portfolios, with savings increasingly moving into mutual funds, insurance, and pension products, though deposits remain the largest asset class. It further finds that deleveraging has left corporate balance sheets healthier, and that non-banking financial institutions have displaced banks as the dominant holders of government debt. The paper then draws out four macroeconomic insights: personal consumption appears increasingly supported by credit; private investment remains tepid on weak demand, despite repaired balance sheets; non-banking intermediation has deepened capital markets while raising exposure to market and regulatory dynamics; and persistent current account deficits leave India’s growth dependent on mobile foreign capital.
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Economic concentration in India: The role of financial conditions
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
This paper examines recent trends in corporate concentration in India’s non-financial sector, with a focus on developments since 2015. Using firm-level data from the CMIE Prowess database we document changes in asset and income distribution across firms. We find that while the overall decline in the public sector’s share of assets and income contributed to a reduction in measured concentration in earlier years, this was accompanied by a steady increase in the share held by large private business groups. By 2023 – 24, the top five business groups — Reliance, Tata, Adani, Aditya Birla, and Bharti — accounted for approximately 24(%) of total assets and 16(%) of total income in the non-financial corporate sector.
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Cross state comparison of excess deaths during the covid pandemic in India: Some measurement and methodological considerations
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
This paper assesses excess mortality in India during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the year 2021 when the country experienced a substantial surge in deaths. Drawing on newly released official data from the Civil Registration System (CRS) and the Sample Registration System (SRS), and supplemented with estimates based on the National Family Health Survey (NFHS‑5), we construct a range of mortality estimates using multiple baseline comparisons. Excess deaths are calculated in absolute terms, per 1,000 population, and using age-standardised death rates to facilitate cross-state and international comparisons. Particular attention is paid to persistent challenges in India’s mortality data landscape, including regional disparities in death registration completeness, limitations in cause-of-death certification, and inconsistencies between administrative and survey-based sources. The analysis includes alternative projections that adjust for estimated registration completeness, underscoring the sensitivity of mortality estimates to underlying data assumptions. By applying standard demographic techniques such as age standardisation, we attempt to mitigate the effects of India’s heterogeneous age structure and registration coverage. The findings suggest a substantial mortality impact from the pandemic, exceeding officially reported figures, and raise broader questions about the capacity of statistical systems to support real-time health surveillance. We identify correlates in terms of state capacity.These results have implications for public health preparedness, intergovernmental coordination, and the long-term strengthening of civil registration and vital statistics systems in India.
Authors:
B S Bhargav, Dipa Sinha and Arjun Jayadev
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And the search goes on: Job search and job-finding rates in urban India
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
The cross-sectional nature of Indian employment surveys limits a true understanding of labour market dynamics. Using innovations in official national-level labour surveys that track urban individuals across four quarters, we study transitions from unemployment to employment — defined as the job-finding rate — to understand whether those seeking employment are able to find suitable work in urban India. Our analysis reveals significant weaknesses in the urban Indian economy over the period 2017 to 2023. On an average, only 17 per cent of unemployed individuals in any quarter find a job in the next quarter. Job-finding rates are the lowest for women, the young and the highly educated. Hazard-rate analyses reveals that the same cohorts take the longest time to find jobs, with a majority remaining unemployed even after four quarters of job search. We demonstrate the impact of the pandemic on urban labour markets in two ways. Not only are job-finding rates significantly lower in the post-lockdown period relative to pre-lockdown, there has also been a shift in the nature of jobs created, with casual work rising and regular wage and self-employment falling post-lockdown. Our analysis has important policy implications for understanding labour market dynamics and for the design of urban employment schemes.
Authors:
Rahul Menon & Paaritosh Nath
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Regressive income shocks during COVID-19: Evidence from India
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
Studies based on the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) in India have shown that the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on household incomes was progressive in nature — richer households suffered more. But several media reports as well as purposive surveys carried out during the pandemic suggest that the poor suffered more than the rich. We use nationally representative panel data for urban India from the official Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) to show that households that were relatively richer prior to the start of the pandemic suffered relatively less during the lockdown compared to households that were poorer. That is, the shock was regressive in nature. We also confirm that, as per CPHS, richer households did indeed experience higher drops in income than poorer ones. But we show that this progressivity is much less than what prevailed prior to the pandemic. Thus the pandemic either disrupted ongoing progressive income changes or was outright regressive in its impacts.
Authors:
Amit Basole, Anand Shrivastava, Jay Kulkarni and Akshit Arora
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Did the nation-wide implementation of e‑FMS in MGNREGS result in reduced expenditures? A re-examination of the evidence
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
This paper revisits a part of the analysis by Banerjee et al. (2020), in which they examine the consequences of the nation-wide scale up of reforms to the funds management system (e‑FMS) in India’s national workfare programme, using a two-way fixed effects specification. They report a substantial 19 percent reduction in labour expenditures. We exploit the recent literature that highlights the limitations of the TWFE estimator in the presence of staggered roll out and effect a Goodman-Bacon decomposition of the TWFE coefficient, to pinpoint sources of identifying variation. We undertake a detailed examination of subsamples of six constituent and valid DiDs based on timing of treatment that are averaged into the TWFE coefficient to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects. This disaggregated subsample analysis does not support the conclusion of any reductions in MGNREGS labour expenditures, suggesting that the TWFE coefficient based on the full sample is indeed biased.
Authors:
- Deepti Goel
- J.V. Meenakshi
- Zaeen De Souza
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Financing Fiscal Support under Alternative Policy Frameworks
in Azim Premji University
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Improving Survey Quality using Para Data- Lessons from the India Working Survey
in Azim Premji University
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Abstract
The efficacy of survey-based policy recommendations is primarily dictated by the quality of data collected in the first place. Is the survey truly representative of the population it claims to characterise? Are respondents voicing their true opinions or are they playing to the gallery? Did enumerator bias creep into the data? These are questions that most users of surveys have, but are typically brushed aside in the race to get the analyses out. While there are no foolproof measures to ensure that survey data are authentic, certain steps can be taken to improve their dependability. One such is the use of what is called ‘para data’ (data about the process of data collection), to streamline enumerator practices, and thereby improve the reliability of the data being collected. This report details our experience of using para data to improve the quality of the India Working Survey (IWS).
Authors:
- Deepti Goel
- Rosa Abraham
- Rahul Lahoti
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Did Employment Rise or Fall in India between 2011 and 2017- Estimating Absolute Changes in the Workforce
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
The recently released data from the 2017 – 2018 Periodic Labour Force Survey have created a controversy regarding the quantity of employment generated in the past few years in India. Estimates ranging from an absolute increase of 23 million to an absolute decline of 15.5 million have been published. In this paper we show that some of the variation in estimates can be explained by the way in which populations are projected based on Census 2011 data. We estimate the change in employment using the cohort-component method of population projection. We show that for men total employment rose but the increase fell far short of the increase in working age population. For women, employment fell. The decline is concentrated among women engaged in part-time or occasional work in agriculture and construction.
Authors:
- Paaritosh Nath
- Amit Basole
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Income Distribution and Effective Demand in the Indian Economy
in Azim Premji University
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- Authors
Abstract
Does there exist a trade-off between labour’s income share and output growth rate? Or does a reduction in wage share in itself reduce the output growth rate? These questions have returned to the centre stage in the midst of India’s present crisis as the government sought the dilution and suspension of labour laws as a counter-cyclical policy instrument. In the absence of any other stimulus or countervailing factors, the impact of such a policy would hinge on the relationship between income distribution and effective demand. This paper attempts to lay bare this relationship for the Indian economy through an empirical analysis of India’s macro data and a theoretical model on the basis of regression results.
Author:
- Zico Dasgupta
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