Publications & Resources
Our faculty, students and researchers work together everyday to contribute to a better world by grappling with urgent problems we are facing in India. We conduct rigorous work to produce high quality learning resources and publications to contribute to public discourse and social change. Here, we feature a sample from our work for everyone to access. You can explore featured resources, policies, and the latest publications from the University.
To explore all the work of our University, please visit our publications repository.
CSIE Working Paper Series
Rural growth and distribution. Two narratives from the PLFS 2017 – 2023
in Azim Premji University

- Published
- Authors
Abstract
This paper investigates a striking puzzle in recent rural India: individual real wages have shown weak or stagnant growth for large segments of the labour force, while house hold per-capita incomes have risen materially and, in many cases, faster among lower deciles. Using microdata from the Periodic Labor Force Survey(PLFS)2017 – 2023, wedocu mentthese contrasting patterns and reconcile them. First we undertake a simple decompo sition that separates (i) average real wage per earner, (ii) the number of earners per house hold, and (iii) household size. Our empirical analysis shows that demographic and labour supply adjustments — chiefly an increase in earners per household driven by rising labour force participation and expanded non-farm employment — accountforthebulkofobserved gains in household per-capita income even as individual real wages remain subdued. Dis tributional analysis reveals that percentage growth has been relatively progressive (lower deciles recording larger proportional gains), but absolute level gaps persist and, in many cases, widen. We further disaggregate decile income by occupational category and find that lower deciles have seen significant shifts from casual work to self-employed status. Since the latter category provides, on average, higher incomes, this can partially explain muchof the observed progressivity of household income growth.
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CSIE Working Paper Series
Growth, Employment, Productivity and Demographics in Indian States: Lessons from an Accounting Decomposition
in Azim Premji University

- Published
- Authors
Abstract
This paper examines the interaction between demographic change, employment absorption, and productivity growth across Indian states using a transparent accounting decomposition. Methodologically, we extend standard demographic dividend accounting by explicitly incorporating labor-market absorption, decomposing per capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) growth into output per employed worker, the employment-to-working-age population ratio, and the working-age share of the population. This employment-adjusted framework separates the mechanical contribution of age structure — the arithmetic demographic dividend — from labor-market dynamics and productivity performance. Using state-level data spanning 1994 – 2023, we document substantial heterogeneity in demographic transitions and growth experiences across Indian states. Declining dependency ratios provided a positive mechanical contribution to per capita growth in almost all states. However, this potential dividend was frequently muted — and in several cases fully offset — by falling employment-to-working-age ratios, particularly during the high-growth period from 2004 to 2017. At the same time, several better performing states, sustained high growth in output per working-age adult over long periods. A three-period decomposition (1994 – 2004, 2004 – 2017, and 2017 – 2023) reveals a marked shift in the composition of growth. While earlier phases were characterized by strong productivity growth alongside weak employment absorption, the post-2017 period exhibits a partial recovery in employment ratios accompanied by a broad-based slowdown in productivity per employed worker. We use the historical bounds implied by these decompositions to construct counterfactual growth trajectories, highlighting the limits of demographic advantage in the absence of employment-intensive productivity growth.
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