This paper assesses excess mortality in India during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the year 2021 when the country experienced a substantial surge in deaths. Drawing on newly released official data from the Civil Registration System (CRS) and the Sample Registration System (SRS), and supplemented with estimates based on the National Family Health Survey (NFHS‑5), we construct a range of mortality estimates using multiple baseline comparisons. Excess deaths are calculated in absolute terms, per 1,000 population, and using age-standardised death rates to facilitate cross-state and international comparisons. Particular attention is paid to persistent challenges in India’s mortality data landscape, including regional disparities in death registration completeness, limitations in cause-of-death certification, and inconsistencies between administrative and survey-based sources. The analysis includes alternative projections that adjust for estimated registration completeness, underscoring the sensitivity of mortality estimates to underlying data assumptions. By applying standard demographic techniques such as age standardisation, we attempt to mitigate the effects of India’s heterogeneous age structure and registration coverage. The findings suggest a substantial mortality impact from the pandemic, exceeding officially reported figures, and raise broader questions about the capacity of statistical systems to support real-time health surveillance. We identify correlates in terms of state capacity.These results have implications for public health preparedness, intergovernmental coordination, and the long-term strengthening of civil registration and vital statistics systems in India.

Authors:

B S Bhargav, Dipa Sinha and Arjun Jayadev