Employment projection, particularly at the micro or sectoral level, is considered as a useful tool for economic planners and policymakers to have a better understanding of future trends and growth, and accordingly, the policies and planning could be designed for the supply side of the labour market. 

This study finds that there is a lack of literature in the recent past on the above issue in the context of India, hence in this paper, we have tried to estimate employment numbers for seven broad economic sectors for the period 2024 – 25 to 2030 – 31. The study uses the ​“Top-down” approach to estimate and project the employment numbers by using the employment-output elasticities and forecasted values of growth rates of gross value added (GVA) at the sectoral level. 

Three broad conclusions have been drawn from the employment estimates. First, the agriculture and allied sector continued to be the dominant force in creating employment opportunities till 2030 – 31, however, a surge of employment in the sector in recent years may unlikely continue in the future. Second, the slowing down of economic activities in services sector is expected to dent high employment growth prospects in the sector. Third, a phenomenal rise of employment in industry particularly in manufacturing sector in recent years augurs well for the economy which is expected to remain buoyant in the medium term as well

Controlling for monetary policy, government transfers are potentially inflationary. This, however, may not be true when the economy is demandconstrained. Using a panel data of 17 Indian states over 30 years, we show that government transfers via welfare programs do not lead to inflation. For identification, we use a narrative shock series of transfer spending that is based on the introduction of new welfare programs. We then look at a specific program, NREGA, which has been shown to increase rural wages, and show that its implementation did not increase inflation.

Authors:

• Girish Bahal
• Anand Shrivastava